Commercial space governance in the post-Ukraine era: Managing strategic dependencies on private space infrastructure
ACTA ASTRONAUTICA, cilt.249, sa.B, ss.253-263, 2026 (SCI-Expanded, Scopus)
- Yayın Türü: Makale / Tam Makale
- Cilt numarası: 249 Sayı: B
- Basım Tarihi: 2026
- Doi Numarası: 10.1016/j.actaastro.2026.08.054
- Dergi Adı: ACTA ASTRONAUTICA
- Derginin Tarandığı İndeksler: Academic Search Ultimate (EBSCO), Scopus, Science Citation Index Expanded (SCI-EXPANDED), Compendex, INSPEC, Public Affairs Index
- Sayfa Sayıları: ss.253-263
- İstanbul Medipol Üniversitesi Adresli: Evet
Özet
The growing dominance of commercial actors in space infrastructure has created a fundamental tension in international security that states increasingly depend on private companies for capabilities they consider vital to national security yet exercise limited control over these providers. This study examines this tension, termed the "strategic dependency paradox", through qualitative case study analysis of three interconnected developments and the integration of SpaceX's Starlink constellation into Ukrainian military operations during the ongoing conflict with Russia, China's strategic and counterspace response to Western commercial space growth, and the evolution of governance frameworks at national, alliance, and international levels. The analysis reveals that commercial space generates both stabilizing dynamics, through enhanced resilience, targeting complexity, and raised conflict costs, and destabilizing ones through unpredictable private decision-making, dual-use targeting ambiguity, and new escalation pathways. Empirical findings indicate that private infrastructure providers may pursue objectives that are juxtaposed with, rather than subordinate to, state interests, creating a form of "commercial strategic interdependence" that existing theoretical frameworks grounded in state-centric assumptions do not adequately address. The European implications are particularly significant, as the EU's dependence on US-based commercial providers has catalyzed a paradigm shift toward strategic autonomy in space. The study contributes to deterrence theory by introducing the concept of "deterrence by delegation," where states must rely on private actors whose decision-making they cannot fully predict or control, and extends complex interdependence theory to account for private intermediaries operating across competing state interests. Policy recommendations emphasize critical infrastructure designation for commercial space systems, regulatory consolidation, updated alliance coordination mechanisms, and enhanced crisis management frameworks that account for the roles of commercial actors in strategic domains.