Frequency innovative polygon trend analysis (F-IPTA) method proposal and applications
Hydrological Sciences Journal, cilt.71, sa.7, ss.1351-1360, 2026 (SCI-Expanded, Scopus)
- Yayın Türü: Makale / Tam Makale
- Cilt numarası: 71 Sayı: 7
- Basım Tarihi: 2026
- Doi Numarası: 10.1080/02626667.2026.2637776
- Dergi Adı: Hydrological Sciences Journal
- Derginin Tarandığı İndeksler: Science Citation Index Expanded (SCI-EXPANDED), Scopus, IBZ Online, Compendex, Geobase, INSPEC
- Sayfa Sayıları: ss.1351-1360
- Anahtar Kelimeler: climate change, Danube streamflow, Durham rainfall, F-IPTA, IPTA, Oxford temperature, trend analysis
- İstanbul Medipol Üniversitesi Adresli: Evet
Özet
Non-monotonic trends, which cannot be detected by traditional trend analysis methods and exhibit different behaviours across various quantiles of a time series, can distort distribution parameters. In this study, frequency analysis is incorporated into the innovative polygon trend analysis (IPTA) method using auxiliary histograms integrated into the IPTA plot. To clearly demonstrate the effectiveness of the newly developed F-IPTA method, monthly maximum temperature in Oxford (UK) between 1853 and 2023, total monthly rainfall in Durham (UK) between 1881 and 2024, and streamflow in the Danube River between 1814 and 2022 are analysed. Oxford temperatures and the Danube River streamflow reflect seasonal decreasing frequencies in the very low values and increasing frequencies in the low values, reflecting seasonal increasing trends. However, Durham rainfall exhibits decreasing frequencies in the very low and very high values, and increasing frequencies in the normal and high values, indicating a seasonal non-monotonic decreasing trend.