Nonlinear trend analysis method proposal and Turkish precipitation applications
Physics and Chemistry of the Earth, cilt.144, 2026 (SCI-Expanded, Scopus)
- Yayın Türü: Makale / Tam Makale
- Cilt numarası: 144
- Basım Tarihi: 2026
- Doi Numarası: 10.1016/j.pce.2026.104616
- Dergi Adı: Physics and Chemistry of the Earth
- Derginin Tarandığı İndeksler: Science Citation Index Expanded (SCI-EXPANDED), Scopus, Chimica, Compendex, Geobase, INSPEC
- Anahtar Kelimeler: Nonlinearity, Precipitation, Probability, Slope, Trend
- İstanbul Medipol Üniversitesi Adresli: Evet
Özet
All existing parametric and non-parametric trend tests in the literature yield a single linear trend component, increasing or decreasing in mean. This article presents the concepts of an innovative nonlinear trend analysis method (NTAM) that combines all probabilistic and population statistical parameters of a given dataset. Trends across several hydrometeorological data levels are determined by considering population characteristics. Detection of climate change has traditionally been possible through trend analysis obtained either from whole hydrometeorological series or from comparing the probability distribution functions (PDFs) of early and late segments. These methods provide estimates of the underlying population distribution, quantify uncertainty, and show how uncertainty in PDF parameters is reflected in NTAM slopes and trend lines. NTAM curves are shown in figures, and they have statistically lower standard deviations compared to traditional linear trend methods. The application is presented for annual precipitation records from seven different climate zones of Türkiye.