Historical natural climate change imprints from Nilometer water level measurements
Journal of African Earth Sciences, cilt.242, 2026 (SCI-Expanded, Scopus)
- Yayın Türü: Makale / Tam Makale
- Cilt numarası: 242
- Basım Tarihi: 2026
- Doi Numarası: 10.1016/j.jafrearsci.2026.106261
- Dergi Adı: Journal of African Earth Sciences
- Derginin Tarandığı İndeksler: Science Citation Index Expanded (SCI-EXPANDED), Scopus, Geobase, INSPEC, Zoological Record
- Anahtar Kelimeler: Anthropogenic, Change, Climate, Nile river, Probability, Risk, Trend
- İstanbul Medipol Üniversitesi Adresli: Evet
Özet
In general, climate change researches primarily require temperature and rainfall records. This paper concentrates on Nile River high water level measurements through Nilometer and there are annual records from 621 to 1921 with some gaps but there are also long-term records right in the beginning of measurements and after 1825. Since the records are quite old, therefore the general expectation is that there are no anthropogenic climate impacts. Historical wet and dry spells are reflected on the river level measurements, it is interesting to notice whether there were drought and flood events and the changes about the risk potential of the records during nonoverlapping periods throughout the Nilometer measurement history. Nilometer measurements since 621 up to 1921 is a good example for such a historical event. For the assessment of climate variability there are many approaches in the literature, but in this study lengthy Nilometer datasets 621-1463 and 1825-1921 periods are subjected to two effective methodology applications to answer these questions by means of probabilistic cumulative distribution functions (CDFs) for risk assessments and innovative trend analysis (ITA) method application for trend component changes. It is observed that although the former period has an increasing trend the latter period has decreasing trend, which is indication of natural climate change impact on the Nile river flows. In the ITA templates, eleven classifications are given as a new proposal based on CDF risk levels.