Trend-risk model for predicting non-revenue water: An application in Turkey

Şişman E., Kızılöz B.

Utilities Policy, vol.67, 2020 (SCI-Expanded) identifier identifier

  • Publication Type: Article / Article
  • Volume: 67
  • Publication Date: 2020
  • Doi Number: 10.1016/j.jup.2020.101137
  • Journal Name: Utilities Policy
  • Journal Indexes: Science Citation Index Expanded (SCI-EXPANDED), Social Sciences Citation Index (SSCI), Scopus, Academic Search Premier, International Bibliography of Social Sciences, EconLit, Environment Index, Geobase, INSPEC, PAIS International, Public Affairs Index, Civil Engineering Abstracts
  • Keywords: Non-revenue water, Probability, Risk analysis, Trend analysis, Trend risk model
  • Istanbul Medipol University Affiliated: Yes


Reducing non-revenue water (NRW) is one of the most significant strategies for the effective management of water resources. Efforts to reduce NRW and losses are also critical for planning the future budgets of water utilities. In this study, NRW prediction are made by a new approach based on trend and risk calculations based on historical data. Prediction, monitoring, and evaluation of NRW amounts according to specific risk values provide objective planning support for successful and sustainable water management. The relationship between specific risk levels and NRW loss amounts is explained through the model charts. Possible NRW losses for specific risk levels are predicted through 2023. NRW prediction provides advantages for budget balances and sound water utility decision-making, planning, and investment.