Projected Changes in Extreme Precipitation Patterns across Algerian Sub-Regions


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Hamitouche Y., Zeroual A., Meddi M., Assani A. A., Alkama R., ŞEN Z., ...More

Water (Switzerland), vol.16, no.10, 2024 (SCI-Expanded) identifier

  • Publication Type: Article / Article
  • Volume: 16 Issue: 10
  • Publication Date: 2024
  • Doi Number: 10.3390/w16101353
  • Journal Name: Water (Switzerland)
  • Journal Indexes: Science Citation Index Expanded (SCI-EXPANDED), Scopus, Agricultural & Environmental Science Database, Aqualine, Aquatic Science & Fisheries Abstracts (ASFA), CAB Abstracts, Compendex, Environment Index, Food Science & Technology Abstracts, Geobase, INSPEC, Pollution Abstracts, Veterinary Science Database, Directory of Open Access Journals
  • Keywords: Algerian climate zones, climate change, extreme precipitation, NEX-GDDP-CMIP6, scenarios
  • Istanbul Medipol University Affiliated: Yes

Abstract

Extreme precipitation events play a crucial role in shaping the vulnerability of regions like Algeria to the impacts of climate change. To delve deeper into this critical aspect, this study investigates the changing patterns of extreme precipitation across five sub-regions of Algeria using data from 33 model simulations provided by the NASA Earth Exchange Global Daily Downscaled Climate Projections (NEX-GDDP-CMIP6). Our analysis reveals a projected decline in annual precipitation for four of these regions, contrasting with an expected increase in desert areas where annual precipitation levels remain low, typically not exceeding 120 mm. Furthermore, key precipitation indices such as maximum 1-day precipitation (Rx1day) and extremely wet-day precipitation (R99p) consistently show upward trends across all zones, under both SSP245 and SSP585 scenarios. However, the number of heavy precipitation days (R20mm) demonstrates varied trends among zones, exhibiting stable fluctuations. These findings provide valuable foresight into future precipitation patterns, offering essential insights for policymakers and stakeholders. By anticipating these changes, adaptive strategies can be devised to mitigate potential climate change impacts on crucial sectors such as agriculture, flooding, water resources, and drought.