Markov Chain transition probability modeling of radon gas records and future projection possibility determination

Bilici A., Külahcı F., Bilici S., ŞEN Z.

Journal of Atmospheric and Solar-Terrestrial Physics, vol.244, 2023 (SCI-Expanded) identifier identifier

  • Publication Type: Article / Article
  • Volume: 244
  • Publication Date: 2023
  • Doi Number: 10.1016/j.jastp.2023.106027
  • Journal Name: Journal of Atmospheric and Solar-Terrestrial Physics
  • Journal Indexes: Science Citation Index Expanded (SCI-EXPANDED), Scopus, Academic Search Premier, Aerospace Database, Artic & Antarctic Regions, Communication Abstracts, Compendex, INSPEC, Metadex, Civil Engineering Abstracts
  • Keywords: Markov chain simulation, Radon, Transition, Probability, Category, Projection
  • Istanbul Medipol University Affiliated: Yes


Markov Chain models serve two purposes firstly, subdivide the main data based on the mean value and one and two standard deviation plus and minus values around the mean value. The second stage of modeling, after calculating the transition probabilities between these categories from the available data, is completed by repeatedly multiplying the categorization date groups until the steady-state transition probability values are obtained. This procedure provides a convenient modeling approach for radon gas transient measurement records. After a brief presentation of Markov Chain procedure in this paper, the application is carried out by considering five categories that lead to a better transition probability matrix. Such a matrix provides information about the probabilities of future transition at the radon data measuring station. In addition, it is possible to associate these transition probabilities with the possibility of an earthquake.