Markov Chain transition probability modeling of radon gas records and future projection possibility determination

Bilici A., Külahcı F., Bilici S., ŞEN Z.

Journal of Atmospheric and Solar-Terrestrial Physics, cilt.244, 2023 (SCI-Expanded) identifier identifier

  • Yayın Türü: Makale / Tam Makale
  • Cilt numarası: 244
  • Basım Tarihi: 2023
  • Doi Numarası: 10.1016/j.jastp.2023.106027
  • Dergi Adı: Journal of Atmospheric and Solar-Terrestrial Physics
  • Derginin Tarandığı İndeksler: Science Citation Index Expanded (SCI-EXPANDED), Scopus, Academic Search Premier, Aerospace Database, Artic & Antarctic Regions, Communication Abstracts, Compendex, INSPEC, Metadex, Civil Engineering Abstracts
  • Anahtar Kelimeler: Markov chain simulation, Radon, Transition, Probability, Category, Projection
  • İstanbul Medipol Üniversitesi Adresli: Evet

Özet

Markov Chain models serve two purposes firstly, subdivide the main data based on the mean value and one and two standard deviation plus and minus values around the mean value. The second stage of modeling, after calculating the transition probabilities between these categories from the available data, is completed by repeatedly multiplying the categorization date groups until the steady-state transition probability values are obtained. This procedure provides a convenient modeling approach for radon gas transient measurement records. After a brief presentation of Markov Chain procedure in this paper, the application is carried out by considering five categories that lead to a better transition probability matrix. Such a matrix provides information about the probabilities of future transition at the radon data measuring station. In addition, it is possible to associate these transition probabilities with the possibility of an earthquake.