The Impact of Sovereign Credit Default Swap (CDS) Premiums on Export Stability in Türkiye
Pacific Economic Review, 2026 (SSCI, Scopus)
- Yayın Türü: Makale / Tam Makale
- Basım Tarihi: 2026
- Doi Numarası: 10.1111/1468-0106.70036
- Dergi Adı: Pacific Economic Review
- Derginin Tarandığı İndeksler: Social Sciences Citation Index (SSCI), Scopus, Periodicals Index Online, ABI/INFORM, EconLit, Geobase, Business Source Ultimate (EBSCO)
- Anahtar Kelimeler: A-ARDL, export stability, sovereign CDS premium, Türkiye
- İstanbul Medipol Üniversitesi Adresli: Evet
Özet
This study examines the short- and long-run relationship between Türkiye's 5-year sovereign credit default swap (CDS) premium and monthly exports during 2010M1–2023M12 using the augmented autoregressive distributed lag (A-ARDL) approach. Because the dependent variable is total export value in US dollars, the empirical analysis measures export stability in a macroeconomic sense rather than environmental or multidimensional export sustainability. The system-level cointegration tests indicate a long-run relationship among exports, CDS, CPI, REER and BIST 100; they do not establish pairwise CDS–export cointegration. The long-run CDS coefficient is statistically insignificant, whereas the one-month-lagged short-run CDS coefficient is negative. In the long run, CPI is negatively associated with exports and BIST 100 is positively associated. These findings distinguish the short-run sovereign-risk effect from the long-run roles of price stability and capital-market performance in Türkiye.