Advancing SDG7–SDG13 Through Technology Innovation: The Environmental Impacts of Technological Advancements in Green, Fossil, and Energy Efficiency in Türkiye

Identifying the principal drivers of carbon emissions is vital for designing effective mitigation strategies and supporting long-term environmental sustainability. Although previous studies have explored multiple determinants of emissions, limited attention has been paid to the most influential energy–technology channels within trade-dependent emerging economies. This study addresses that gap by investigating the environmental effects of energy technologies in Türkiye between 1990 and 2023 within an extended Environmental Kuznets Curve (EKC) framework. The analysis advances the EKC approach by incorporating trade as a structural alternative to GDP, reflecting Türkiye's status as a rapidly expanding and trade-oriented emerging economy. It further introduces novel indicators of R&D effectiveness, constructed as ratios between energy consumption and technology-specific R&D expenditures, which serve as proxies for the technological return on investment in emission reduction. Using ARDL bounds testing to detect long-run relationships and applying FMOLS and DOLS estimators for robustness, the empirical strategy ensures methodological consistency and reliable coefficient estimation. Long-run results show that a 1% rise in trade increases CO₂ emissions by roughly 0.38%, indicating that trade expansion remains carbon-intensive in Türkiye. Conversely, a 1% improvement in renewable energy R&D effectiveness lowers emissions by nearly 0.04%, while gains in energy efficiency generate statistically significant short-run emission reductions. These findings highlight the distinct roles of trade intensity, fossil energy dependence, and technological effectiveness in shaping environmental outcomes. The analysis offers practical guidance for emerging economies seeking to decouple trade-led growth from emissions sustainably.